Hollywood Future in China Hangs in the Balance as Disney Prepares Major Releases
Despite political tensions, Marvel’s Thunderbolts and Disney’s Lilo & Stitch remake are set to hit Chinese theatres, signaling a temporary truce — but the long-term outlook remains cloudy.
Despite recent warnings of tighter restrictions on American films, Hollywood is not out of the Chinese market just yet.
In what looks like a strategic pause rather than a reversal, China is preparing to screen several high-profile U.S. films, including Marvel’s Thunderbolts, expected to premiere around the Labour Day holiday, and Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch, which lands in Chinese cinemas on May 23. These releases come just weeks after Beijing hinted at reducing U.S. film imports amid growing trade tensions with Washington.
For now, at least, the door to the world’s second-largest film market remains open.
But this cautious openness doesn’t mean Hollywood is thriving in China. In fact, the glory days of American cinema dominating Chinese screens seem to be firmly in the past.
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A Market in Transition
Once a surefire way for studios to boost global box office numbers, China has become a far tougher market for Hollywood to crack. The numbers paint a clear picture: foreign films made up just 21.3% of China’s box office in 2024 — a steep drop from 35% in 2019. Even more telling, no Hollywood production has crossed the 1 billion yuan ($140 million) benchmark in the past two years.
American titles like Captain America: Brave New World and Snow White failed to resonate with Chinese audiences, while local hits like Ne Zha 2 have shattered records. As of this week, China’s 2025 box office has already reached 25.5 billion yuan ($3.5 billion) — 60% of last year’s total — and most of that revenue has come from homegrown films.
Hollywood’s total annual box office revenue in China has collapsed from 21.04 billion yuan in 2018 to just 5.81 billion in 2024.
More Political Symbolism Than Policy Shift?
Analysts believe Beijing’s recent announcement about reducing U.S. film imports is more about political posturing than an actual economic strategy. With U.S.-China trade tensions continuing to simmer, the move could be aimed at signaling discontent rather than triggering real change.
“There’s no real necessity to cut Hollywood films significantly,” said Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. “It’s unlikely to shift the dynamic of trade talks.”
Another perspective is that Hollywood — often associated with anti-Trump sentiment — might not even be an effective target for retaliation in Washington’s eyes, as Yu Yusan, a veteran of Chinese cinema distribution, pointed out.
However, if restrictions do tighten, there may be room for other countries to step in.
Opportunities for Other Foreign Films
China’s film regulators have made it clear they want to diversify the range of imported films, noting they will consider “market trends and audience preferences.” In practice, this likely means more content from culturally closer nations like Japan, Thailand, and India.
Film scholar Lu Peng from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences believes Japanese productions are particularly well-positioned to gain ground. “While Hollywood still leads in commercial appeal and production scale, Japanese films could benefit significantly if U.S. imports decline,” he said.
Even European films, which traditionally under-perform in China, might get a boost. A recent agreement between China and Spain to expand collaboration on film festivals and co-productions suggests Beijing is actively exploring new partnerships.
Domestic Films Take the Lead
At the heart of all this is a Chinese film industry that’s rapidly evolving. Backed by government support and growing technical expertise, domestic studios are producing high-quality content that resonates with local audiences. Big-budget productions like Ne Zha 2 have proven that China can now match — or even outdo — Hollywood on its home turf.
To further drive box office growth, Chinese authorities have launched the “China Film Consumption Year” campaign, with state-run financial institutions and major ticketing platforms pledging at least 1 billion yuan in subsidies to encourage movie-going.
Final Thoughts
While Disney’s upcoming releases signal that Hollywood hasn’t been shown the door just yet, the writing is on the wall: the Chinese market is changing, and American studios can no longer rely on old formulas to win over local audiences.
The message from Beijing seems to be clear — less dependence on Hollywood, more focus on homegrown talent and new global partnerships. For U.S. studios, this means it’s time to rethink their China strategy, not just wait for the next opening on the release calendar.
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