Marvel Thunderbolts to Test China’s Appetite for Hollywood Amid Escalating Trade Tensions
Marvel Thunderbolts – As the latest Marvel film Thunderbolts premieres in Chinese cinemas this week, all eyes are on how it performs—not just at the box office, but as a cultural and political litmus test. This is the first major American release in China since the latest round of U.S.–China trade tensions flared, making its reception significant beyond just entertainment circles.
A Hollywood Gamble in a Shifting Market
Thunderbolts, part of Disney’s sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, was granted release clearance before China began curbing Hollywood imports earlier this month in retaliation to U.S. tariffs. That timing might be its saving grace, allowing the film to bypass the latest restrictions and hit screens across the country.
But Hollywood has been losing its grip on the Chinese box office for years. In 2024, just 42 American films released in China—down significantly from past decades—and 2025’s early numbers offer little hope for a rebound.
Disney’s Snow White earned only 9 million yuan ($1.24 million), while Captain America: Brave New World managed 104 million yuan, a modest figure compared to Chinese blockbuster Ne Zha 2, which has raked in a staggering 7 billion yuan this year alone.
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Audience Tastes Have Shifted
Many Chinese moviegoers, especially from the older generation, remember when Hollywood was synonymous with spectacle and storytelling.
“I think the last American movie I watched was Dune, four years ago,” said Pan Lei, a 49-year-old film enthusiast from Beijing. “I miss the days of Titanic, Speed, True Lies, and Iron Man. That was the golden age for us.”
But younger Chinese audiences, born into a world where homegrown cinema is flourishing, often don’t share the same attachment. China’s film industry has matured rapidly, producing high-budget, culturally resonant films that consistently top the domestic charts. These stories, told in familiar contexts with local stars, are resonating more deeply with today’s viewers.
Hollywood’s Fading Influence
While Thunderbolts may perform moderately well due to brand recognition, the larger trend is unmistakable: Hollywood is no longer essential in China’s theatrical landscape. Analysts believe that even if trade tensions were to ease, American films may never reclaim their former dominance.
“China will continue to dominate its home market,” said Stanley Rosen, a political science professor at the University of Southern California.
“They’ve learned from Hollywood—especially through partnerships like the one with DreamWorks in Shanghai—and they no longer need the blockbusters. The local industry is more than capable now.”
Only two American films crossed the 100 million yuan threshold in China last year—a stark decline from the 2010s when Hollywood films routinely dominated box office charts. Rosen doesn’t expect even that modest success to repeat in 2025.
What Thunderbolts Represents
The film’s release, therefore, becomes more symbolic than strategic. It’s not just about superhero fatigue or box office numbers. It’s a broader indication that cultural power is shifting, and that China’s soft power is being increasingly wielded through its own cinema.
If Thunderbolts underperforms, it will add to growing doubts in Hollywood about the value of pursuing the Chinese market at all, especially amid rising geopolitical friction.
The Final Verdict?
The true test will be in the numbers. If Thunderbolts can cut through the current skepticism and attract significant Chinese viewership, it may offer a glimmer of hope to American studios. But if it fades quickly like its predecessors, it will likely reinforce what many in the industry already fear: Hollywood’s golden era in China is over.
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