Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Guide – What to Know
Why Betting the Derby Is Unique
20 horses. 1¼ miles. All 3-year-olds, most running this distance for the first time.
Unpredictability is high — recent long-shot winners:
Rich Strike (2022): 80-1, paid $163.60 on $2 bet.
Mystik Dan (2024): 18-1, paid $39.22 on $2 bet.
Huge Money in the Pool
Mystik Dan’s prep race drew $2.4M in Win/Place/Show bets.
His Derby win? The pool jumped to $104 million.
Top Storylines & Horses to Watch
Bob Baffert is back after a 3-year ban. His top contender Rodriguez scratched. His lone entry now is Citizen Bull (Post 1), ridden by Martin Garcia.
The Favorite: Journalism
Excellent pedigree, top speed, proven stamina — but low payout likely.
Strong Mid-Tier Bet: Burnham Square (12-1)
Impressive in Blue Grass Stakes. Good closer in a field with early speed.
Value Long Shot: Final Gambit
All turf races until now. Training strong. Has speed and upside.
Underdog to Root For: Chunk of Gold
Bought for $2,500. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby. Cinderella story.
Japan’s Rising Threat
Luxor Cafe (son of American Pharoah): 4 straight wins, dominant in Japan. First U.S. race. A big X-factor.
Admire Daytona: Also representing Japan. Improving steadily.
A Derby for the Old Guard
- Wayne Lukas (age 89) enters American Promise (may scratch).
Mike Smith (age 59) could become oldest jockey to win.
Lonnie Briley (age 72) trains Coal Battle, a longshot with a heartwarming backstory.
Late Changes to Watch
Rodriguez scratched (Baffert).
Grande and American Promise expected to scratch, possibly letting Baeza into the field. If so, he’ll be ridden by Flavien Prat and could surprise.
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